Moscow: In a significant blow to global food security, Russia announced on Monday that it has suspended an unprecedented wartime agreement, which facilitated the shipment of grain from Ukraine to countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The deal, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last summer, aimed to address the growing threat of hunger and rising food prices that have pushed more people into poverty.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, during a conference call with reporters, confirmed the halt of the deal, adding that Russia would resume its implementation once its demands are met. “When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal,” Peskov stated.
The agreement was a breakthrough accord designed to enable food to leave the Black Sea region after Russia’s invasion of its neighboring country approximately a year and a half ago. In addition to the grain deal, a separate agreement facilitated the movement of Russian food and fertilizer amid Western sanctions.
Both Russia and Ukraine are major global suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil, and other affordable food products that are vital for developing nations. However, Russia has complained about restrictions on shipping and insurance that have hindered its food and fertilizer exports, which are critical components of the global food chain.
Although analysts and export data indicate that Russia has been shipping record amounts of wheat, along with a steady flow of fertilizers, the recent suspension of the agreement has raised concerns about food security.
The deal was renewed for 60 days in May, but the amount of food shipped and the number of vessels departing Ukraine have drastically declined in recent months. Russia has been accused of limiting additional ships’ participation in the agreement. The ongoing war in Ukraine resulted in surging food commodity prices, contributing to a global food crisis exacerbated by conflicts, the lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and climate-related factors such as droughts.
The disruption in grain shipments has worsened economic challenges and led to increased poverty and food insecurity, particularly in countries heavily reliant on imported food priced in dollars. Developing nations are grappling with weakened currencies, increased import demands due to climate issues, and high costs for essential grain supplies. Countries such as Egypt, Lebanon, Nigeria, Somalia, Kenya, Morocco, and Tunisia are particularly affected by the devastating consequences of these developments.
The termination of the Black Sea deal poses a significant threat to the food security of numerous countries, exacerbating the challenges faced by nations dealing with high debt levels and climate-related issues, according to Simon Evenett, a professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. He highlighted that rising interest rates, aimed at curbing inflation, along with weakening currencies, have made it increasingly difficult for many developing countries to finance their purchases in dollars on the global markets.
While analysts anticipate only a temporary bump in food commodity prices due to increased wheat and corn exports from countries like Russia and Brazil, the issue of food insecurity continues to grow. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization recently reported that 45 countries require outside food assistance, with high local food prices exacerbating hunger levels in these regions.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which facilitated the export of 32.9 million metric tons of grain and other food, more than half of which went to developing nations, has suffered setbacks since its inception. Despite Russia’s intermittent withdrawal and reentry into the agreement, recent developments have hindered the initiative’s effectiveness. Ukraine has accused Russia of preventing new ships from participating, resulting in a significant backlog of vessels waiting off the coast of Turkey. Joint inspections meant to ensure the exclusion of weapons have also been significantly delayed.
In contrast, Russia has experienced record-breaking wheat shipments, propelled by a bountiful harvest. The country exported 45.5 million metric tons of wheat in the 2022-2023 trade year, with estimates pointing towards another record of 47.5 million metric tons for 2023-2024, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
The suspension of the agreement threatens to compound the existing challenges in the global food supply chain. The international community must address the growing issue of food insecurity, particularly in developing nations heavily dependent on affordable food imports.
